Is The Recession Really Over?

The U.S. economy has been mildly uplifted by the biggest government spending in its history, a tidal wave of cheap money. But it can't continue for the U.S. is so deeply in debt it doesn't know how it will pay back all the money it has already borrowed.

But please judge for yourself. Here are the major elements of the economy:

1) Consumer Spending. Believe it or not, the U.S., once a manufacturing powerhouse the envy of the industrialized world, is now 70% driven by consumer spending, and buying goods for the most part made elsewhere. Consumers are deeply in debt, and afraid of losing their jobs and in some cases their homes. And unlike Wall Street and big company CEO's, adjusted for inflation, wage earners, which are most American workers, made less money last year than in 1999.

2) Business Spending. Much of this spending is on new technology to operate more efficiently with fewer people. As for job expansion, what little there is won't last long if consumers don't start spending for that's what most businesses rely on. As for small business, America's job engine, with few exceptions, it can't borrow money to expand even if it wanted to.

3) State And Local Government Spending. In many states from New York to California, this is a disaster, as they struggle to pay their bills and balance their budgets.

4) Federal Spending. A bonanza for Wall Street and giant military contractors. Times have never been better. Unfortunately, it is all at taxpayer's expense.

5) Exports. The U.S. imports far more than it exports, so the balance of payments are ruinous and this shortfall too needs to be financed. The U.S. trade deficit last month rose to the biggest it has been in 16 months.

Unless there are major structural changes in the U.S. economy these factors bode badly for America's future. But for now, the endless wars and weapons programs will drain what is left of the U.S.'s financial and moral stability.

And America's insatiable need for oil and other fossil fuels leave it under the control of British Petroleum, Exxon, giant utilities etc., big campaign contributors all, for there is no energy policy, goals, time frames or anything else to change course.

Hopefully this financial disaster will unite the American people to help one another, as happened during the Great Depression.

President Obama used to speak of "change" but didn't deliver it on financial and military/war issues. But change is coming for America is on an unsustainable path and the people will get involved to rescue themselves from financial Armageddon and perhaps to restore the respect and stature America once held throughout the world.

Dick