Dear Reader, To gain insight into the U.S. Labor Force, the following is a snippet from John Mauldin's Weekly E-Letter. John quoted Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and what Rob had to say is quite interesting as we gage what is to come next in the U.S. jobs market and in the economy. As you read this please keep in mind the vast number of manufacturing jobs the U.S. has shipped overseas.
“John, I looked at the composition of the labor force, men and women. Look at the graph below. From 1948 until 1980, men who considered themselves to be ‘in the labor force’ (working or wanting work) equaled roughly 98% of the male population ages 20-64. [Wow. What a quaint concept. If you could work, you wanted work.] From 1980 to 2005, this proportion fell steadily, from 98% to 92%. Then, in six years, it fell again by half this margin, to 89%. As for male employment, it averaged 94% of the population age 20-64, until the 1975 recession. Today, it’s 81%. Let’s assume that the old labor force ratio of 98% could, in fact, work. That means that male unemployment – including those who have given up on the idea of gainful employment – is over 17%, and is roughly tied with the levels of mid-2009.
“For women, society evolved from predominantly ‘homemaker’ employment to a point, about a decade ago, where women in the labor force equaled about 82% of the female population aged 20-64. The women in the labor force have dropped from 82% to 78% in ten years, with most of that drop in the past two years; that’s 5% of the female workforce that’s simply given up in two years. Using the prior peak of 82%, as the roster who would want to work, the current 71.6% who are working implies that female unemployment is roughly 13%, and is much higher than it was two years ago."
Dear Reader, This snippet paints an ugly picture about long term U.S. employment. If you would like to know more about these labor statistics and review the charts, please see John Mauldin's newsletter: http://www.johnmauldin.com/frontlinethoughts/its-all-about-the-jobs-and-gold But also remember, the situation is never hopeless and if we as Americans unite, we can take strong action to change this trend.
“John, I looked at the composition of the labor force, men and women. Look at the graph below. From 1948 until 1980, men who considered themselves to be ‘in the labor force’ (working or wanting work) equaled roughly 98% of the male population ages 20-64. [Wow. What a quaint concept. If you could work, you wanted work.] From 1980 to 2005, this proportion fell steadily, from 98% to 92%. Then, in six years, it fell again by half this margin, to 89%. As for male employment, it averaged 94% of the population age 20-64, until the 1975 recession. Today, it’s 81%. Let’s assume that the old labor force ratio of 98% could, in fact, work. That means that male unemployment – including those who have given up on the idea of gainful employment – is over 17%, and is roughly tied with the levels of mid-2009.
“For women, society evolved from predominantly ‘homemaker’ employment to a point, about a decade ago, where women in the labor force equaled about 82% of the female population aged 20-64. The women in the labor force have dropped from 82% to 78% in ten years, with most of that drop in the past two years; that’s 5% of the female workforce that’s simply given up in two years. Using the prior peak of 82%, as the roster who would want to work, the current 71.6% who are working implies that female unemployment is roughly 13%, and is much higher than it was two years ago."
Dear Reader, This snippet paints an ugly picture about long term U.S. employment. If you would like to know more about these labor statistics and review the charts, please see John Mauldin's newsletter: http://www.johnmauldin.com/frontlinethoughts/its-all-about-the-jobs-and-gold But also remember, the situation is never hopeless and if we as Americans unite, we can take strong action to change this trend.
1 comment:
Sadly our economy has gone from a manufacturing base to one of largely service. While technology has made manufacturing a commodity, it is a shame when our governmental policies make life extremely difficult for our companies yet we can buy from companies in other countries that violate those same laws.
It is a shame that we don't demand a level playing field so that when a bicycle (for example) is being sold in the US that labor and environmental requirements are met worldwide. If other countries manufacture cheaper in a true head to head competition then more power to the winner. Sadly the system is foolishly gamed against ourselves!
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